Posts & Election Analyses (36 of 36)

So, what are the probabilities of each of the parties getting a certain number of seats? I'm glad you asked:

Updated: 2016/07/13 3:20pm I have added in adjustments for the Tasmanian BTL count (16% of ALP given to ALP6, 14% of LNP given to LNP5), but nothing more specific than that (Such as the LNP1 -> LNP5 flow)

So now we've done some simulations of the likely parties to get elected; what can we do now? Broadly, the answer is "Fill out the entire ballot paper", but if you want to save time you can just fill out *all* parties tha

The final state we're looking at is Western Australia, and it's a bit of a doozy.

Victoria is up next, and this is another state where the majors should lock down 11 seats. But there's some wiggle room for a second minor party.

Tasmania has fewer minor parties running; but this hasn't really made prediction much easier...

Queensland has quite a few popular minor parties running, and that's making prediction very ... hard.

The most interesting state in terms of potential cross-bench senators is South Australia. The Nick Xenophon Team is running four candidates, and has a very good chance of getting all of them elected:

Ok, finally. I did it. I have something to show for all of my efforts. Drum roll please...

Ok so there's been a lot of pundits lately giving a crack at who they reckon has a decent chance of becoming a senator in the upcoming Federal Election. But is their analysis actually solid?

So, now we've lost Group Voting Tickets (GVTs), and people will now actually be able to preference candidates they *want* rather than candidates that are chosen for them ... what do we expect to happen?

What the heck was that?

Following the High Court's voiding of the 2013 WA Senate result due to 1,375 lost ballot papers during the recount, Western Australians are heading back to the polls for a rare standalone 6-seat Half-Senate Re-Election.

Jacqui Lambie has been elected to the Australian Senate as the lead Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Palmer United Party (PUP).

Tony Abbott asked the population of Australia to “vote for one of the major parties”. It’s a strong statement. He doesn’t want to be dealing with the minor parties to pass legislation through the senate. But, little did

I have been doing my tactical voting analysis for the states and territories in the 2013 Federal Election, and there has been a clear trend for minor left-wing parties to preference other minor parties—including minor ri

In the Australian Senate (under the pre-2016 Group Voting Ticket rules), making an effective tactical vote requires numbering below the line all the way to the final candidate (110 candidates in NSW!). Given the history

The current 2013 Federal Senate predictions (along with state-by-state breakdowns of votes and seat probabilities) are now live in the 2013 Senate Pre-Election Overview.

Welcome all; geekLections is now live! Currently I'm working on Senate predictions for all of the states with some initial polling and preference estimates. Suffice to say, the 2013 Federal Election is going to be an int