September 2, 2013 | 15:49
Federal2013SenateTactical-Voting www.geeklections.com.au
Tactical Voting Methodology for the 2013 Senate: Pure Anti-Vote vs. Best Vote
In the Australian Senate (under the pre-2016 Group Voting Ticket rules), making an effective tactical vote requires numbering below the line all the way to the final candidate (110 candidates in NSW!). Given the history of Senate Group Voting Tickets, over 90% of the Australian population votes above the line—which means a tactical BTL voter can exploit deterministic ticket overflow rules to keep their vote at full transfer value.
Pure Anti-Vote vs. Best Vote
You have two primary options for tactical Senate voting:
- The Pure Anti-Vote: Used to push competing minor-party candidates ahead of a candidate you strongly oppose, eliminating your disliked candidate at an earlier count stage before they can harvest preferences. For example, in NSW, the Australian Sex Party effectively preferenced One Nation highest among contenders with a realistic shot. By ranking competing minor feeder tickets ahead of your major-party preferences, you increase the probability that One Nation is excluded before those minor tickets distribute preferences.
- The Best Vote (Quota-Overflow Avoidance): Because Senate surplus transfers are discounted by the Gregory transfer value when a major party's #1 and #2 candidates exceed a quota on primary votes, voting
1, 2, 3...in standard ticket order causes your vote's transfer value to be heavily diluted. To keep your vote at 100% transfer value until the final seats are decided, start at the bottom candidate of your favoured party ticket and number upwards (e.g. #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, #1), and repeat for each subsequent group you favour.
State-by-State Tactical Breakdown
- New South Wales: Five seats are likely locked by the majors (ALP, LNP, GRN), leaving the 6th seat contested between One Nation, Shooters & Fishers, and the 3rd LNP candidate (Arthur Sinodinos).
- Victoria: The most technical race in the country due to ~3.49 quotas sitting on each side of politics, with Family First, Katter's Australian Party, and the DLP vying for the final seat.
- Queensland, WA, SA, TAS, ACT & NT: Full state-by-state BTL orders and explanations are archived in the original 2013 Tactical Voting page.
Tactical Below-The-Line (BTL) & Senate How-To-Vote Generator
Quota-Overflow OptimizerTactical Reverse-Ticket BTL (`tac`): Numbers candidates within each selected column
from bottom to top (e.g. `#6, #5, #4, #3, #2, #1`). Because top-of-ticket major party candidates
are already guaranteed election on Above-The-Line votes, placing your `#1` preference on the bottom candidate
ensures your ballot transfers at full 1.0 value down to the marginal `#3`/`#4` candidate
without suffering quota-overflow transfer dilution.
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Historic Archive Snapshot: Originally published on
www.geeklections.com.au.