About geekLections

geekLections (geeklections.au) is an Australian psephology, statistical modelling, and election analysis project founded in August 2013.

Originally launched at www.geeklections.com.au ahead of the 2013 Australian Federal Election and the 2013 University of Sydney SRC Election, and expanded at blog.geeklections.com.au from 2016 to 2025, geekLections combines quantitative election-night booth tracking, Single Transferable Vote (STV) / Quota-Preferential Senate simulations, and tactical Below-The-Line (BTL) ballot generation.

What We Model

• Bayesian Multi-Party Polling via Gamma Quotients (Scaled Dirichlet): Overcoming the single-precision constraint of the standard Dirichlet distribution by normalizing independent Gamma variables Yi ~ Gamma(αi, βi) so major, minor, and micro parties have independent variances, pollster house effects, and random-walk volatility on the simplex.
• Lower-House Booth Covariance, Redistributions & Declaration Votes: Spatial-demographic Gaussian Process updating across ordinary booths, Pre-Poll Voting Centres (PPVCs), Postal Vote Applications (PVAs), and Absent votes, outputting full posterior 2PP Beta distributions, First-Preference GQDs, 2CP matchup probabilities, and candidate win probabilities (0–100%).
• Senate STV & Tactical BTL Optimization: Modelling post-2016 Optional Preferential Above-The-Line and Below-The-Line preference flows, quota-overflow transfer dilution, and reverse-ticket tactical BTL numbering.

Contact & Links

• Email: geeklections@gmail.com
• Twitter / X: @geeklections
• GitHub: github.com/geeklections