geekLections Upper House Model · STV Quota & Exhaustion Simulator Post-2016 Optional Preferential ATL/BTL
Australian Senate Swing & Quota Allocation Simulator
State-by-State Senate Quota Calculator (New South Wales — 6 Vacancies, Quota = 14.29%)
Apply Primary Vote Swings from Polling Aggregation (% pts)
| Party / Bloc | Projected Primary % | Exact Quotas (Q = 14.29%) | Full Quota Seats | Fractional Remainder | Final-Seat Win Prob | Projected Seats (6) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor (ALP) | 33.00% | 2.31 Q | 2 | 0.31 Q | 38% | 2 |
| Coalition (L/NP) | 35.00% | 2.45 Q | 2 | 0.45 Q | 62% | 2 |
| The Greens (GRN) | 12.30% | 0.86 Q | 0 | 0.86 Q | 98% | 1 +1 on prefs |
| One Nation (ONP) | 5.90% | 0.41 Q | 0 | 0.41 Q | 60% | 0 |
| Independents / Minor (OTH) | 13.80% | 0.97 Q | 0 | 0.97 Q | 99% | 1 +1 on prefs |
Projected New South Wales Senate Delegation (6 Senators):
ALP #1
ALP #2
LNP #1
LNP #2
GRN #1 Remainder
OTH #1 Remainder
Posterior Senate Quota & Seat Probability Matrix (Pipeline Output)
Loading Senate Monte Carlo STV projections...