Updated: 2016/07/13 3:20pm I have added in adjustments for the Tasmanian BTL count (16% of ALP given to ALP6, 14% of LNP given to LNP5), but nothing more specific than that (Such as the LNP1 -> LNP5 flow)
I still have the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning the last spot (which is theoretically a fight between LNP5 and GRN2). Notable features are:
- One Nation is polling just behind Shooters, Fishers and Farmers when they are knocked out. If they have stronger preference flows than I am modelling, they are in with a shot.
- There's only ~24% of a quota exhausted in my modelling, but this will be much greater due to below the line votes (I am only doing ATL modelling)
- Given this; it is likely to push back to the LNP > GRN > ONP > SFF for the knockout order of the final seat.
- My modelling has a fatal flaw; in 2013 I've only modelled one group as "Left Wing Minor Party". This means the flow matrices in Tasmania can't include Left-to-Left flow. So, for example, when the Arts Party is excluded, it is unable to flow immediately to the Australian Sex Party. This artificially inflates the preferences cast towards everyone else. Also this year I have modelled 5 parties as "Left" which means there will be a bit of a vote-split. I plan on fixing this system using the full 2016 BTL and ATL votes; but I can't do anything right now without significant work.
TL;DR - Treat the 1 SFF seat in Tasmania with caution. It's probably LNP.
Low Variance Totals
| Party |
Seats |
Notes |
| Liberal National Coalition |
30 |
|
| Australian Labor Party |
27 |
|
| The Greens |
7 |
(All States + VIC) |
| Nick Xenophon Team |
4 |
(3 SA + 1 WA [vs. GRN]) |
| Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
3 |
(1 WA + 1 NSW + 1 QLD) |
| The Liberal Democrats |
1 |
(1 QLD) |
| Jacqui Lambie Network |
1 |
(1 TAS) |
| Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
1 |
(1 VIC) |
| LNP > GRN > Shooters > One Nation |
1 |
(1 TAS) |
| Xenophon > LDP |
1 |
(1 NSW) |
High Variance Counts
New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)
| Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
{% for row in site.data.election2016-highvar.NSW_withSeats_12 %}
<tr>
<td style="text-align: left">{{row.Group}}</td>
<td style="text-align: left">{{row.Name}}</td>
<td style="text-align: left">{{row.Votes}}</td>
<td style="text-align: left">{{row.pct | round: 2}}</td>
<td style="text-align: left">{{row.Quotas | round: 2}}</td>
<td style="text-align: left">{{row.ExpectedSeats | round: 3}}</td>
</tr>
{% endfor %}
