2014 South Australian Election: Legislative Council Preview & Simulation Breakdown
The 2014 South Australian Election site is now live, covering pre-election Monte Carlo simulations and Legislative Council preference-flow outcomes for the 11 Upper House seats up for election.
Simulation Methodology & Variance
Primary vote percentages were seeded from current South Australian polling alongside priors for minor-party primary shares. For this analysis, the Nick Xenophon (Independent Xenophon Team) ticket was assigned a substantially larger primary vote variance than the major parties to reflect uncertainty in personal-vote carry-over when Nick Xenophon himself is not the lead candidate on the state ballot.
Notably, the simulations show a high probability of between 2 and 4 crossbench/minor-party MLCs (outside ALP, LP, and GRN) winning seats out of the 11 contested spots.
Most Likely 11-Seat Breakdowns (Simulated Probabilities > 0.5%)
| Chance of Outcome | ALP | LP | GRN | FF | XEN | Other Minor Parties Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.8% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Dignity for Disability (26.1%) / LDP (10.4%) / PUP (2.3%) / Stop Population Growth (2.1%) / Multicultural (1.8%) |
| 10.9% | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Dignity for Disability (8.5%) / LDP (2.4%) |
| 8.2% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 8.2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Dignity for Disability (5.0%) / LDP (2.6%) / Multicultural (0.6%) |
| 1.9% | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | D4D + LDP (1.1%) / D4D + PUP (0.8%) |
| 1.9% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | D4D + PUP (1.1%) / D4D + LDP (0.8%) |
Explore the full interactive charts and live count snapshots in the Historic 2014 SA Election Archive.
www.geeklections.com.au.