2014 Western Australian Senate Re-Election Preview

Following the High Court's voiding of the 2013 WA Senate result due to 1,375 lost ballot papers during the recount, Western Australians are heading back to the polls for a rare standalone 6-seat Half-Senate Re-Election.

Pre-Election Baseline & Swings Applied

To model the WA Senate re-election, I started from the 2013 WA Senate primary votes, added baseline shares for newly contesting micro-parties (calibrated from their performance in eastern states), and applied the following baseline swings based on recent WA state-level federal polling and the ballot draw:

• Liberal Party: -5.0%
• The Nationals: +1.0% (boosted by drawing a favourable column position on the ballot paper)
• Australian Labor Party: +3.0%
• The Greens: +1.0%

With all parties re-lodging fresh Group Voting Tickets specifically tailored to the known dynamics of the 2013 count, the battle for the 5th and 6th seats between ALP #2, Greens #1 (Scott Ludlam), Palmer United Party (Dio Wang), and the micro-party alliance is on a knife-edge.

View the full primary and seat probability charts in the Historic 2014 WA Senate Re-Election Archive.