geekLections

NSW Legislative Council: Below The Line Vote Generator

Sat, 09 Mar 2019 13:20:00 +1100

In the NSW State Election, you will need to fill out a gigantic page of minor parties with preferences for the Upper House (Legislative Council).

To assist with that, I’ve made a below the line vote generator which generates your own personal how-to-vote card you can take to the polling booth with you.

By clicking on your preferred parties in order from most to least preferred, they will be added to your list on the right. Once you are satisfied with your choices, just click the “Download How To Vote” button, and it will generate a .pdf file for you to take with you on your phone, or for easy printing.

The votes themsevles are only below the line and are tactical votes. (TL;DR: To maximise the value of your vote, don’t let it break quota in early rounds).

If you want to restart, please refresh the page.

Tactical Below The Line Vote Generator

Unassigned Groups

Chosen Group Order

Other Voting Notes

Remember to have a look at the number of seats that your chosen parties have won in the previous election. You only really need to vote for candidates around the last seat to be elected. If you can’t be bothered voting for this many candidates below the line, at least cover those that have a chance, but aren’t guaranteed.

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Thomas Clement

Live Upper House Estimates

Sat, 24 Nov 2018 07:20:00 +1100

30/11 9:00am - Fiona Patten’s in a much better position to retain her seat in NMR. Further counting has increased her vote percent by about 0.5% and pushing her into competition with the Liberals

Also, the LDP is looking much stronger in SEMR. They always had a great deal (1.33% in pre-election analysis was my 50/50 level), and now they’re looking even stronger under 1%! I’m taking that seat back from the Transport Matters Party.

Party	Total	EMR	EVR	NMR	NVR	SEMR	SMR	WMR	WVR
Australian Labor Party	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2
Liberal / National Coalition	11 (-1)	2	2	0 (-1)	2	1	2	1	1
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Liberal Democrats	2 (+1)	0	0	0	1	1 (+1)	0	0	0
Transport Matters	1	1	0	0	0	0 (-1)	0	0	0
The Australian Greens	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Sustainable Australia	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Aussie Battler Party	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Animal Justice Party	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party	1 (+1)	0	0	1 (+1)	0	0	0	0	0

27/11 10:20pm - Most important update is that the seat has moved back to the LNP from Labor in NMR (as expected, and as I’d already noted days ago).

A lower variance analysis, now that more votes have come in gives the following expected changes to outcome:

EVR
- Aussie Battler Party vs. Shooters, Fishers & Farmers is very close, so we’ll move it to Aussie Battler being slightly in front on the most likely overall outcome.
WMR
- Aussie Battler Party vs. Shooters, Fishers & Farmers is very close, so we’ll move it to Shooters, Fishers & Farmers being quite a bit better.
WVR
- Animal Justice Party likely to pick up the second seat from LNP
Net result is an increase for the AJP and a decrease for the LNP

Party	Total	EMR	EVR	NMR	NVR	SEMR	SMR	WMR	WVR
Australian Labor Party	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2
Liberal / National Coalition	12 (-1)	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	1 (-1)
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Transport Matters	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
The Australian Greens	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers	1	0	0 (-1)	0	0	0	0	1(+1)	0
Liberal Democrats	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Sustainable Australia	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Aussie Battler Party	1	0	1 (+1)	0	0	0	0	0 (-1)	0
Animal Justice Party	1 (+1)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1 (+1)

25/11 11:40am - Not much has changed since I last updated, about 40% of the ballots have been assigned to groups. It looks like the vote counts haven’t been updated in a while (nothing live since 2:30am)

11:14pm - I have to give the coalition the last seat in NMR. They’ll get it back as the more conservative votes are counted. Table updated below with ALP 18 and LNP 13.

10:56pm - Added in most likely outcome charts, I will be heading to bed in the next hour and will resume updating in the morning. My current best estimate of final composition as at 10:56pm:

Party	Total	EMR	EVR	NMR	NVR	SEMR	SMR	WMR	WVR
Australian Labor Party	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2
Liberal / National Coalition	13	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	2
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Transport Matters	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
The Australian Greens	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Liberal Democrats	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Sustainable Australia	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Aussie Battler Party	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0

Just be aware that below the line votes, and the bulk of the counting to be done, still leaves the door open for changes here.

But the substantive cause of this is the breakdown in the relationship between Labor and the Greens.

9:50pm - The seats are taking much more shape. It’s very clear now that the Greens are in a very tough spot, while Labor may get 17 or 18 seats.

8:28pm - Votes are now coming in from every region, so the graphs below are true for the small number of votes that have come in.

Total Seats

Percent Vote

Most Likely Seats

geekLections

Thomas Clement

Final Pre-Election Upper House Estimates

Sat, 24 Nov 2018 07:20:00 +1100

A final breakdown of the pre-election estimates of all parties on a region-by-region basis.

geekLections

Thomas Clement

Victorian South-West Region Analysis

Wed, 21 Nov 2018 11:20:00 +1100

In this post today I’ll walk through the final four regions of the election:

South Eastern Metropolitan Region
Southern Metropolitan Region
Western Metropolitan Region
Western Victoria Region

I’ll be using the same two plots as yesterday’s post (have a look if you haven’t already!), with party logos added

South Eastern Metropolitan Region

It’s overwhelmingly likely we will see two Liberal and Labor seats (if you can’t see the vertical line, the Liberals are estimated to get right on two quotas), and the final seat is a tossup amongst the minor parties, or possibly a third Labor

The best deal on the table is the LDP, with only really the Greens a possible upset potential (or Labor)

Prediction

LNP: 2
ALP: 2
LDP: 1

Southern Metropolitan Region

This region has a really good split of votes to fend off an attack from the micro parties. Liberals have a solid two quotas, and a chance at a third, but the Labor, Greens left wing split should be enough to win their 2nd and 1st seats respectively.

The best placed micro parties, if they get a decent vote share, are the two Justice parties, but the real crazy risk is the Sustainable Australia Party with a crazy good deal. They’re located to the right of all of the major parties (on the ballot), so that will cost them, but with a 0.4% vote … they’re a shot of upsetting.

… and if they do get the ball rolling, they’re going to take a spot from Labor or the Greens.

Prediction

LNP: 2
ALP: 2
SUS: 1

Western Metropolitan Region

If the swing is true, the Liberals stand to lose their second seat, and in the worst kind of way, bad Group Voting Ticket deals. They need nearly 80% of a quota to have a shot! This region is likely to be 1 Liberal, 3 Labor and, unless the Greens get a nice swing, one of the following micros:

Hinch’s Justice (Pole position on the ballot!)
LDP
Reason
DLP

Prediction

LNP: 1
ALP: 2
GRN: 1
DHJ: 1 (Hinch will Clinch)

Western Victoria Region

Liberal and Labor will get two seats each, they will each get two quotas in primary vote. The last seat is incredibly difficult for the Greens to get, just like last time when Vote 1 Local Jobs took the final seat. Strangely enough, they’re not recontesting this region.

The best placed microparties are Reason, both Justice parties or the LDP.

Prediction

I don’t really want to predict this one, as we really don’t have any polling data on Hinch’s Justice … but here we go…

LNP: 2
ALP: 2
HJP: 1 (This feels wrong, but oh well)

Today’s Aggregated Predictions:

LNP: 7 (-1)
ALP: 8 (+1)
DHJ: 2 (+2)
LDP: 1 (+1)
SUS: 1 (+1)
GRN: 1 (-2)
DLP: 0 (-1)
V1J: 0 (-1)

Whole House Aggregated Predictions:

LNP: 14 (-2)
ALP: 16 (+2)
DHJ: 3 (+3)
LDP: 3 (+3)
GRN: 2 (-3)
SUS: 1 (+1)
CAR: 1 (+1)
DLP: 0 (-1)
V1J: 0 (-1)
SEX: 0 (-1)
SFF: 0 (-2)

So what does this look like for managing the government?

Well, considering that the Andrews Labor Government hasn’t been getting along well with the Greens, this is great news for them, and horrible news for the Greens. The Greens and the Liberals don’t control enough seats to block legislation.

Even if the micro parties aren’t listed correctly, it would take a miracle for a majority of the upper house to require the Greens to support legislation. This would require the Liberals to retain an extra upper house seat in a swing against them, and the Greens to keep all of their current seats given horrible preferences from Labor.

So, the battle for Greens relevance will be won and lost in the lower house this election cycle.

geekLections

Thomas Clement